Successive probable maximum precipitation (SPMP) methodology and applications

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dc.authorid0000-0003-2754-5492
dc.contributor.authorŞen, Zekai
dc.date.accessioned2022-10-14T07:57:16Z
dc.date.available2022-10-14T07:57:16Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.departmentİstanbul Medipol Üniversitesi, Mühendislik ve Doğa Bilimleri Fakültesi, İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü
dc.description.abstractPMP has two different estimation methods, namely statistical and hydro-meteorological approaches. The statistical method is based on the calculation of frequency factor (FF) by taking into account the arithmetic mean and standard deviation parameters. The classical probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is based on the (FF) calculated from the annual daily maximum precipitation (ADMP) time series records, which excludes the maximum recording. The classical method returns an FF value without any uncertainty. This paper suggests a successive FF (SFF) method that leads to a series of SFFs, starting with the first three records, and then scanning the entire time series. The probabilistic operation of the SFF sequence presents the uncertainty components in FF based on a set of preset exceedence probability levels and their corresponding return periods. The application of the methodology is presented for three ADMP records from Turkey, Algeria and Arabian Peninsula, which represent humid, semi-arid and arid regions, respectively. The arithmetic mean of the SSF values for the meteorology stations in each country was calculated as 3.07, 2.75 and 3.45, respectively. However, predetermined exceedence probability amounts are presented in the form of tables and graphics. It was concluded that the classical FF calculation provides a single value without any exceedence probability assessment, whereas the SFF method provides FF values with a range of exceedence probability levels.
dc.identifier.citationŞen, Z. (2022). Successive probable maximum precipitation (SPMP) methodology and applications. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 13(6). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-022-00928-z
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s00703-022-00928-z
dc.identifier.issn0177-7971
dc.identifier.issn1436-5065
dc.identifier.issue6
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85139233091
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ2
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-022-00928-z
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12511/9840
dc.identifier.volume13
dc.identifier.wos000862561600001en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ4
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.institutionauthorŞen, Zekai
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherSpringer Wien
dc.relation.ispartofMeteorology and Atmospheric Physicsen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.subjectSuccessive Probable Maximum Precipitation (SPMP)
dc.subjectApplications
dc.subjectMethodology
dc.titleSuccessive probable maximum precipitation (SPMP) methodology and applications
dc.typeArticle

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