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    Climate change impact on rainfall in north-eastern Algeria using innovative trend analyses (ITA)
    (Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2021) Boudiaf, Besma; Şen, Zekai; Boutaghane, Hamouda
    Climate change impacts affect the hydrological cycle and hence the availability of water resources and their management. Rainfall, the most important hydro-meteorological event and as the main source of water, may have increasing or decreasing trends depending on geography and location, general air circulation, proximity to coastal areas, and geomorphology. There are many studies using monotonic trend analysis in the literature, but it is important to assess these trends at different levels for proper recording. For this purpose, in this paper, instead of using monotonic trend analysis, partial trends will be sought at “Low,” “Medium,” and “High” rainfall records groups, which is possible through the innovative trend analysis (ITA) methodology. Algeria being adjacent to the Mediterranean Sea is impacted by variations in rainfall. The application of the ITA methodology is presented for 16 different Algerian annual rainfall records from 1982 to 2019 in the north-eastern region of the country which is in proximity to the Mediterranean basin. Partially increasing, decreasing, or no trend pieces are identified at each station. It is concluded as the future unfolds some stations will record dry spell or drought dangers for “Low” data groups, and significant flood danger for the “High” rainfall amount data group. In general, the study area is known to be subject to an increasing rainfall trend. This is due to the mountainous terrain in the study area and makes for confrontation with cold air movements from the European continent during winter periods.
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    Monthly extreme rainfall risk envelope graph method development and application in Algeria
    (IWA Publishing, 2021) Zeroual, Sara; Şen, Zekai; Boutaghane, Hamouda; Hasbaia, Mahmoud
    Rainfall patterns are bound to change as a result of global warming and climate change impacts. Rainfall events are dependent on geographic location, geomorphology, coastal area closeness and general circulation air movements. Accordingly, there are increases and decreases at different meteorology station time-series records leading to extreme events such as droughts and floods. This paper suggests a methodology in terms of envelope curves for monthly extreme rainfall event occurrences at a set of risk levels or return periods that may trigger the extreme occurrences at meteorology station catchments. Generally, in many regions, individual storm rainfall records are not available for intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curve construction. The main purpose of this paper is, in the absence of individual storm rainfall records, to suggest monthly envelope curves, which provide a relationship between return period and monthly extreme rainfall values. The first step is to identify each monthly extreme rainfall records probability distribution function (PDF) for risk level and return period calculations. Subsequently, the return period rainfall amount relationships are presented on double-logarithmic graphs with the best power model as a set of envelope curves. The applications of these methodologies are implemented for three Hodna drainage basin meteorology station rainfall records in northern Algeria. It is concluded that the most extreme rainfall risk months are June, August and September, which may lead to floods or flash floods in the study area. A new concept is presented for the possible extreme value triggering months through the envelope curves as 'low', 'medium' and 'high' class potentials.
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    Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and flood (PMF) risk charts in Hodna basin, Algeria
    (Springer Wien, 2022) Zeroual, Sara; Şen, Zekai; Boutaghane, Hamouda; Hasbaia, Mahmoud; Zeroual, Ayoub
    Flood magnitude, frequency and intensity are bound to increase in many parts of the world due to global warming and its consequent effect as climate change impacts. The main purpose of this paper is to apply the classical probable maximum precipitation and probable maximum flood methodologies leading to a new concept of risk level charts, which provide hydrograph time to peak probable maximum discharge after the beginning of precipitation, base time and peak discharge values. Dimensionless hydrograph methodology is employed for flood hydrograph analysis. The applications of probable maximum precipitation and probable maximum flood methodologies are presented for Algerian meteorology stations' annual maximum daily precipitation amounts from 23 different locations at Hodna drainage basin in the north-eastern of Algeria. Classical probable maximum precipitation frequency factor is obtained for each meteorology station record, which are then converted to pointwise probable maximum flood amounts that are helpful to construct practically applicable flood charts. A new relationship is provided between probable maximum precipitation and the frequency factor for the study area. The efficiency factor is calculated for each station to understand whether there is a further possibility for extreme precipitation, and consequent flood occurrences.
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    Temperature and precipitation risk assessment under climate change effect in northeast algeria
    (Springer International Publishing AG, 2020) Boudiaf, Besma; Dabanlı, İsmail; Boutaghane, Hamouda; Şen, Zekai
    Climate change impacts on social, economic, industrial, agricultural, and water resource systems tend to increase incrementally with each passing day. Therefore, it is necessary to plan to control its effects, especially with regard to temperature and rainfall events impacting future water resource operation, maintenance and management works. Climate change has a direct influence at the trend of both components temperature and precipitation in increasing or decreasing manner depending on the study area. This paper presents and interprets temperature and rainfall trends for Northeast Algeria. A trend analysis technique was employed along with risk assessment. The modified risks associated with 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 250, and 500-year return periods are then calculated for each station. This methodology has been applied to precipitation and temperature records for six different meteorological stations in Northeast Algeria. This study confirms that climate change has and will continue to have an impact on temperature and precipitation that should be considered for all infrastructure planning, design, construction, operation, maintenance and optimum management studies in future.