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dc.contributor.authorŞen, Zekai
dc.date.accessioned10.07.201910:49:13
dc.date.accessioned2019-07-10T19:49:38Z
dc.date.available10.07.201910:49:13
dc.date.available2019-07-10T19:49:38Z
dc.date.issued2019en_US
dc.identifier.citationŞen, Z. (2019). Partial trend identification by change-point successive average methodology (SAM). Journal of Hydrology, 571, 288-299. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.02.007en_US
dc.identifier.issn0022-1694
dc.identifier.issn1879-2707
dc.identifier.urihttps://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.02.007
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12511/1688
dc.descriptionWOS: 000462692100025en_US
dc.description.abstractThere are different trend identification methodologies in the literature, but almost all are for monotonic trend searches within a given hydro-meteorological time series partially at equal epochs or holistically over the whole record duration. The most important question is how to identify within the same time series successive trends of different durations and slopes. For this purpose, successive arithmetic average methodology (SAM) is proposed in this paper, first for a set of trends visual inspection and then their quantitative duration and slope calculations. This method provides to identify peak and valley change-points years, trends durations and slopes. The most significant benefit from SAM is that there is no need for preliminary assumptions and trends identifications are straight forward. The only limitation of the method is short length time series. Absolute relative percentage error control is suggested as +/- 10% for separation of successive partial trend differences. The application of SAM methodology is presented for more than seventy-year duration total annual rainfall records from seven geographic and climate regions in Turkey. It has been calculated that both increasing and decreasing trend durations have at the maximum 4.5-year duration. According to the calculations, except at one meteorology station almost all the trend slopes are negative, which may be an initial signal for climate change impact indicating the rainfall decreases in recent years over Turkey.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherElsevier Science Bven_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccessen_US
dc.subjectChange Pointen_US
dc.subjectPartialen_US
dc.subjectSAM Slopeen_US
dc.subjectTrenden_US
dc.subjectITAen_US
dc.subjectTurkeyen_US
dc.titlePartial trend identification by change-point successive average methodology (SAM)en_US
dc.typearticleen_US
dc.relation.journalJournal of Hydrologyen_US
dc.departmentİstanbul Medipol Üniversitesi, Mühendislik ve Doğa Bilimleri Fakültesi, İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümüen_US
dc.authorid0000-0003-2754-5492en_US
dc.identifier.volume571en_US
dc.identifier.startpage288en_US
dc.identifier.endpage299en_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.02.007en_US


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